Traditional institution's methods are now complemented with new forms of epidemic and other scientific evidence-based and collective intelligence.The challenge of separating the 'signal from the noise’ remains and there is a need to optimize intelligence systems. Epidemic intelligence activities have grown in parallel with increasing data, digitalisation and computer power. Epidemic intelligence consists of analysing and reporting by public health institutions, global networks of health professionals, news scanning, social media monitoring, literature reviews, and so on. Detecting an outbreak as early as possible provides an opportunity to contain it and arrange timely countermeasures. Epidemic intelligenceĮpidemic intelligence is a science that uses a wide range of sources to identify signals of potential disease outbreaks. This Trend is part of the Megatrend Shifting Health Challengesĭevelopments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend. antimicrobial resistance is a very serious threat which will have a lasting impact. What the new threats will be is unknown, but candidates have been identified: for e.g. where risks are assessed and mitigated in the context of the human, animal and environmental interphase. Zoonoses are driven by factors such as continued population growth, land use change, climate change, the intensification of food systems and habitat loss.Therefore, to better anticipate, detect and respond to new threats, a multi-sectorial approach that covers all of these is needed, based on the principles of ‘One Health’, i.e. Zoonoses are significantly increasing in both frequency and severity and will have enormous long-term impacts. A new culture of preparedness relies on the accessibility of necessary equipment - a feature with different components.ĬOVID-19 is a reminder of the fact that most emerging infectious diseases in humans (> 60%) are of zoonotic origin (from animals), with the majority (70%) originating in wildlife. This was aggravated by the closure of borders and rupture of global supply chains. Post-COVID-19, much has changed, and preparedness plans now look to contain broader effects on society, and to increase societal resilience.ĭuring the COVID-19 pandemic many countries faced (and continue to suffer from) shortages in capacities, including health care professionals, hospital beds, intensive care units, personal protective equipment, medicines and devices, diagnostics, laboratory material and oxygen. Older health crisis preparedness plans were designed to mitigate a crisis from a public health point of view. Gaps were revealed in foresight, including demand/supply dimensions, preparedness and response tools. In 2019, Disease X became COVID-19 and it exposed the vulnerabilities and ‘under-preparedness’ of the systems. The WHO stated in 2018 that the biggest future health risk was the emergence of an unknown “ Disease X”. ‘Preparedness plans’ aim to protect the health, safety and resilience of communities and critical infrastructures. There are systems in place that monitor threats to society and provide support and funds in a crises. (© CC0 - Serghei Trofimov on ) Trend: Keep calm and carry on, but also ‘be prepared’Ī trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

Creative keep calm and carry on